Why Saquon Barkley’s Extension is the Exception, Not the Rule

On March 4th, Philadelphia Eagles superstar running back Saquon Barkley signed a two-year contract extension worth $41.2 million. 

Barkley’s deal will take effect in the 2027 season and make him the first running back to surpass an annual salary of $20 million – 30 years after Barry Sanders was supposed to make a league-leading $5.76 million. 

Since 1997, running backs have gotten the short end of the stick, with heated debates over the last few years on whether or not running backs are underpaid.

For reference, Troy Aikman was the highest-paid quarterback in 1997 at $5.67 million, which pales compared to Dak Prescott’s projected $61.6 million salary in 2025.

Record-breaking contracts like Barkley’s are usually assumed to “reset the market,” meaning that the deal has set a new standard for the position’s pay. 

We’ve seen this phenomenon impact the wide receiver market, in what feels like every offseason for the past few years, with wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase becoming the highest-paid non-quarterback this offseason when he signed a four-year, $161 million extension with the Cincinnati Bengals ($40.25 million per year).

However, Barkley’s contract extension will not equate to the salvation of the running back market.

Since 1997, a lot has affected the running back market, which has led to the position it is in now. We live in a passing league now, and running backs are no longer necessary for a Super Bowl-caliber team.

The last time a Super Bowl-winning team had a running back as a top-10 cap hit on their roster was in 2013, with Marshawn Lynch and the Seattle Seahawks. Since then, every Super Bowl-winning team’s leading rusher until Barkley has had a cap hit of under $2 million. 

That's 11 seasons in a row where teams have proven that you don’t need a star running back to win the championship.

Furthermore, the daunting overcast of health concerns for running backs has scared teams out of giving these playmakers big money and lengthy contracts.

Teams have notably been burned for ponying up. In recent memory, Todd Gurley was released two years into a four-year, $60 million contract after failing to produce in 2019 due to his lingering knee issues. 

But this trend even goes as far back as 2006 when Shaun Alexander signed an eight-year $62 million contract with the Seahawks. Alexander had 3.5 yards per carry (YPC) in 2007 and spent most of the 2008 season injured, resulting in his release at the end of the season.

Out of the 20 largest guaranteed contracts given to veteran backs, only three have ever been completed with the team that originally signed them (Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, and Jonathan Stewart).

The factor that aggravates this contract caution is that the position is so replaceable. 

The San Francisco 49ers represented this sentiment to the fullest this season. With Christian McCaffrey missing the first half of the season with injuries, Jordan Mason stepped in and nearly replicated McCaffrey’s 2023 regular season YPC (5.4), rushing at a 5.2 YPC. Then, when both Mason and McCaffrey went down with injuries later in the season, fourth-round rookie Isaac Guerendo stepped in and ran for 5.0 YPC.

A look around the league this season reveals multiple cases of the expendability of running backs. 

To replace Joe Mixon, the Bengals brought in Zack Moss (who had filled in excellently for the injury-plagued Jonathan Taylor in 2023), but ultimately, it was second-year back Chase Brown who won the job and essentially replicated Mixon’s 2023 numbers.

Fourth-round rookie Bucky Irving (5.4 YPC) came into Tampa Bay and immediately outperformed their presumed starter, Rachaad White (4.3 YPC).

When Travis Etienne struggled with injuries between weeks four and nine, second-year backup Tank Bigsby stepped in and never looked back, rushing for 433 yards on 5.5 YPC before taking on a shared role with Etienne for the remainder of the season.

Even more worrying for running backs looking to make money is when teams opt for the “committee” system that Miami and Washington thrive on. This system allows teams to involve multiple backs, utilizing their strengths without worrying about their weaknesses. 

There are positives to this system, such as reduced injury risk, leading to longer careers, and, as a result, more contract stability. 

However, without a “workhorse” back, there’s no reason to pay top money for someone who will only contribute in a handful of situations.

On top of the many reasons why teams hesitate to pay their star backs, my biggest concern for the running back market is this incoming class of rookie running backs. The 2025 draft class is perhaps the strongest and deepest running back class we have ever seen. 

It has top-loaded talent like Ashton Jeanty (who just produced maybe the best college season ever by a running back), TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins, and Omarion Hampton, who were all picked inside the top 38 picks.

Furthermore, this class features a deep supporting cast of backs such as RJ Harvey, Kaleb Johnson, and Cam Skattebo. And don’t count out former Doak Walker award winner, Ollie Gordon II! It’s no wonder that Pro Football Focus has named 15 backs in the top 120 players in this draft class.

This class of running backs will pose major problems for veteran backs not named Saquon Barkley who are looking to sign a contract for years to come. This year, NFL GMs had no problem drafting competition for their upcoming RB free agents. 

The Chargers took Omarion Hampton in the first round after signing Najee Harris to a one-year deal. A classic Harbaugh move, why only have one bruising running back when you can have two?

In Cleveland, it was unfortunately obvious that Nick Chubb’s time had come to an end. However, Jerome Ford, the pre-draft next man up, has taken a pay cut of about half his guaranteed salary just to avoid being a trade/release candidate for his team that took TWO running backs in the first four rounds.

This is extremely telling for the current state of the running back market. Ford and his agent must also realize that the market for his next job would be similar to that of a nice fountain pen. Everyone can agree it would be nice to have, but only at the right price.

Meanwhile, in Jacksonville, they drafted Bhayshul Tuten at pick 104. This means that Travis Etienne Jr. will have to make himself look desirable this year as he plays on a fifth-year option and faces competition from Bigsby and Tuten.

Kyren Williams is in a similar position to Etienne. The Rams also drafted a fourth round running back, Jarquez Hunter, who they traded up for after watching four other running backs get picked in the 14 picks before his selection.

Let’s keep in mind that these situations aren’t just 6th and 7th round selections where players are brought in with a “let's take a chance on this guy” mindset or with the expectation to fill a small role. 

These are running backs drafted in the top 4 rounds. These guys are expected to come in and provide some serious work and be capable of starting duties within two years at least.

Their selection alone brings a cavity to any leverage that guys like Williams, Etienne, and Harris have left when they arrive at the negotiating table next offseason. What will they do?

In all likelihood, unless they prove to be invaluable and advertise no health concerns, they will be forced to accept the type of contracts that have come to define the “running backs are underpaid” debate…

Barkley is an excellent player and has just come off producing the best season by a non-quarterback (and maybe even including quarterbacks) ever. He has no doubt earned his record contract extension.

However, the greatness of his season won’t be matched for a long time, and his contract will not set a new standard for the running back market that has more going against it than it has going for it.

Saquon Barkley is the exception, not the rule.